Intrade opened the Sarah Palin (pictured) betting market on Tuesday morning after a series of revelations about the Alaska governor who Sen John McCain chose as his running mate, including that her 17-year-old unmarried daughter was pregnant. -- PHOTO: AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
NEW YORK - THE online prediction market Intrade sees a 14.6 per cent chance Alaska Gov Sarah Palin will be withdrawn as the Republican vice-presidential nominee before the US presidential election on Nov 4.
Intrade accepts trades on the probability of events such as whether there will be a recession, whether the US Congress will lift the ban on offshore drilling or whether the United States or Israel will launch a military strike on Iran.
Palin hubbub stirs bloggers
WASHINGTON - THE blogs are alive with the sound of Sarah.
Republican candidate John McCain's staffers may deplore the online rumour mill that forced them to announce the pregnancy of newly minted running mate Sarah Palin's 17-year-old daughter.
It opened the Palin betting market on Tuesday morning after a series of revelations about the Alaska governor who Sen John McCain chose as his running mate, including that her 17-year-old unmarried daughter was pregnant.
The market opened at 3 per cent that she would have to withdraw as Mr McCain's running mate and climbed to 14.6 per cent on 2,532 trades as of 6.45pm EDT (6.45am Singapore time).
The markets are priced from zero to 100, with zero meaning investors see no chance an event will happen and 100 meaning it already has happened.
Removal of a vice-presidential candidate from the ticket is very rare. The last time it happened came in 1972 when Democrat George McGovern dropped Missouri Sen Thomas Eagleton after it was revealed he had been hospitalised three times for 'nervous exhaustion' and received electric shock treatments.
Intrade Chief Executive John Delaney, based in Ireland, said he had no reservations about starting the Palin market.
'(Was it) a political decision for us? No. We list markets that are relevant to people, that people have a passionate interest in getting a greater amount of certainty about,' Mr Delaney said in a telephone interview.
He called prediction markets more accurate than public opinion polls and said Intrade forecast President George W. Bush's re-election in 2004 while correctly indicating the results in all 50 states.
The market gives Democrat US Sen Barack Obama a 61.6 per cent chance of a November win, with Mr McCain at 38.6 per cent. -- REUTERS
