SYDNEY - AN EL NINO weather pattern that could bring drought conditions to Australia's farmlands is 'very likely' this year and could be officially declared within weeks, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) said on Wednesday.
Little chance of avoiding El Nino
The bureau's latest report found that the eastern Pacific Ocean was continuing to warm, with sea temperatures one degree Celsius above normal, and trade winds were continuing to weaken.
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), calculated from monthly and seasonal fluctuations in air pressure between Tahiti and Darwin, remained at around negative 2, while the monthly value for May was negative 5.
'Its very likely we will have an El Nino this year,' David Jones, head of BOM climate analysis, told Reuters.
The bureau said in its latest El Nino report released on Wednesday that there was 'very little chance of the development stalling or reversing'.
Australia is the world's fourth-largest wheat exporter and its grain production is still recovering from the worst drought in more than 100 years that reduced the 2006/07 crop to just 10.6 million tonnes and the 2007/08 crop to 13.0 million tonnes.
Its crop is currently experiencing a second strong year and is expected to be between 21 and 23 million tonnes this year.
El Nino, meaning 'little boy' in Spanish, is driven by an abnormal warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean, and creates havoc in weather patterns across the Asia-Pacific region.
Scientists have linked it with Australian droughts. Warmer, moist weather moves towards the east, leaving drier weather in the western Pacific and Australia. -- REUTERS
