The shower on Wednesday and the sprinkles yesterday may have been a welcome break from the recent heat and dryness, but weather-watchers are predicting a February that will be more parched than usual.

Rain is expected on only five to eight days this month, where 11 wet days bringing 162mm are more typical. A spokesman for the Meteorological Services Division of the National Environment Agency said the first half of the month will be marked by fair, occasionally windy days, with two to three days of showers.

The dry weather is a continuation of last month's conditions, the driest January in a decade. That was, in itself, a break from the usual weather pattern, since January is normally wet.

Experts blame the change on weather conditions in Siberia. The annual accumulation of very cold, dry air over Europe and Asia, which reaches its peak during winter, occurred much earlier this year.

The weatherman has cautioned against leaping to conclusions that the dry spell is a sign of global warming. There is a difference between climate change and natural variations in climate that occur from year to year, experts agree.