SINGAPORE'S exports are tipped to slump further this year as the external environment worsens and global trade is expected to decline.
On Tuesday, trade agency International Enterprise (IE) Singapore revised its forecast for both non-oil exports and total trade. Non-oil exports are projected to slump between 9 and 11 per cent in 2009, down from the previous forecast of between -1 and 1 per cent.
IE Singapore said this was due to 'continued weakness in global demand for electronics products and the rapid slowing down in external demand'.
Last year, non-oil exports shrank 7.9 per cent, reversing a 2.3 per cent rise in 2007.
This was also worse than the Government's revised projection last November of a drop of between 5 and 7 per cent.
Non-oil exports to all top-10 markets except Indonesia and Hong Kong shrank last year.
For 2009, total trade is projected to retreat between 17 and 19 per cent, down from the previous forecast of a decline of between 6 and 8 per cent.
IE Singapore said: 'The weaker prognosis is based on the worsening global trade environment since November 2008, led by significant decline in demand by most of our trading partners.'
DBS Bank economist Irvin Seah called the revised trade forecasts 'more realistic' as the initial projection 'did not gel' with the earlier GDP projection of between -2 and 1 per cent growth.
He explained that as Singapore is a trade-dependent economy, trade forecasts should be more bearish than the GDP projection, especially if a full-year economic contraction is expected.
According to the World Bank, global trade volume is expected to slump 2.1 per cent this year - its first decline since 1982.
