SINGAPORE'S non-oil exports likely fell in December from a year earlier on weak demand for electronics in its key markets, the United States and Europe, which could set the stage for an aggressive fiscal stimulus in next week's budget.

Non-oil domestic exports, or NODX, have tumbled 15.1 per cent from a year ago, according to a median forecast from six economists. Exports fell 4.5 per cent after seasonal adjustments from November, the forecasts showed.

'Another contraction in exports is widely expected in December for Singapore, as in the case of South Korea and Taiwan,' said Alvin Liew of Standard Chartered in Singapore. He expects electronics exports to have declined for the 22nd straight month.

Exports from Taiwan sank 42 per cent in December, leading the country to make an emergency interest rate cut, while South Korea's exports shrank 17.4 per cent last month.

Singapore, like other Asian economies, relies on the rest of the world to buy its products, but consumer sentiment in large developed economies has been battered by the worst financial crisis in 80 years.

'A sharper than expected non-electronics decline (due to pharmaceuticals) could end the year on an even more sour note for the export-dependent country in 2008,' Mr Liew added.

The poor performance has led some economists to predict monetary policy easing before the central bank's next official meeting in April. The bank uses the Singapore dollar as its main monetary policy tool by managing it against a secret basket of currencies.

Singapore, whose economy contracted for a third consecutive quarter in October-December, will give its outlook for 2009 trade on Jan 21, along with final fourth quarter GDP data, a day ahead of a budget expected to be expansionary with infrastructure projects to boost the building industry.

Government trade agency International Enterprise Singapore is due to release the trade data on Friday at 1 pm. -- REUTERS