A Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) poll of 17 economists and analysts found that they expect economic growth to ring in at only 2.2 per cent this year, below the official tip of 2.5 per cent. -- ST PHOTO: MUHAMMAD SHAH
WITH just weeks left till the end of the year, economists are predicting that the Singapore economy will fare worse than the Government has forecast.
A Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) poll of 17 economists and analysts found that they expect economic growth to ring in at only 2.2 per cent this year, below the official tip of 2.5 per cent.
This is significantly bleaker than the 4.2 per cent growth they predicted in a similar MAS survey just three months ago. No sector has been spared the pessimism, although manufacturing and trade are the only segments that economists believe will go into negative territory this year.
The other industries, from financial services to construction, are forecast to continue growing but at a smaller pace. Economists also believe the fourth quarter will be much harder hit than previously expected, logging growth at just 0.4 per cent, down from the 4.8 per cent forecast in September.
Next year is anticipated to be even worse. The Government has said the economy may contract by as much as 1 per cent next year or grow up to 1 per cent, depending on how the global environment fares.
But most economists seem already resigned to seeing the economy shrink next year, on the back of a worse performance by manufacturing and tourism.
More than half said growth would be negative, with three economists predicting that the economy will contract by more than 2 per cent.
Inflation, which is likely to stay high at 6.5 per cent till the end of the year, is projected to come down to 1.7 per cent in 2009.
On the employment front, the economists expect the jobless rate to hold steady at 2.5 per cent for the whole of this year, unchanged from the September survey.
