HANOI - VIETNAM'S economy will show almost zero growth this year, well below the government's target of 6.5 per cent expansion, the Economist Intelligence Unit said on Monday.

The analysts' forecast of 0.3 per cent growth still leaves Vietnam as one of just four Asian economies seen growing this year, said Justin Wood, a South-east Asian expert at the global research and advisory firm.

'I think if you look at the regional context in Asia, it's actually not that bad,' given a serious global recession, he said.

Mr Wood was speaking to reporters ahead of a two-day conference of business and government leaders discussing Vietnam's development.

He presented data that showed China, India and Indonesia as the only other regional economies seen expanding this year.

Vietnam recorded 6.2 per cent growth in 2008, the lowest level in almost a decade and a sharp drop from 8.5 per cent in 2007.

The government has announced a stimulus package of spending and tax cuts to boost the economy, which the International Monetary Fund has predicted could grow at five per cent.

Mr Wood said the expected slow growth rate was mostly due to external factors as the economies of the United States, Europe and Japan, the main markets for the country's exports, are expected to contract.

Vietnam's exports would fall in value this year by 31 per cent, he said.

Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, who is to address the conference on Tuesday, was quoted last month as saying Vietnam's economic slowdown would end by May. -- AFP