The Minister of International Trade and Industry was once a shoo-in for the post that brings with it Malaysia's deputy premiership, but his two opponents have made significant progress.

By the time the last of the 191 party divisions meet this weekend, it will be known if one or both of them will qualify to contest. At least one of them is expected to qualify.

And his opponents - Malacca Chief Minister Ali Rustam, and Rural Development Minister Muhammad Muhammad Taib - are more popular than him in Umno. Both are still short of the minimum 39 nominations to qualify; Datuk Seri Ali has 32, and Tan Sri Muhammad, 29.

Tan Sri Muhyiddin has 77 nominations. The former Johor menteri besar became a popular choice for the No. 2 post just two months ago when he took a major political risk by pushing for Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi's early retirement. A Johor Umno division leader said there was a strong wave of support for him then. Few party leaders dared to take a contrary stand lest they be swept away by a backlash.

Mr Muhyiddin, 61, was then expected to take his place as deputy president beside Deputy Prime Minister Najib Razak, who will move into the Umno presidency uncontested next March.

Mr Muhyiddin was also widely touted as having received the endorsement of former premier Mahathir Mohamad who still holds some sway in Umno.

But in the last two weeks, he has struggled after Umno grassroots began to resist the idea of letting him have a walkover.

Datuk Seri Abdullah is also said to have given tacit support to Mr Ali, 59, in reaction to Mr Muhyiddin's push for the premier's early retirement.

Mr Muhammad, 63, is a well-known Abdullah loyalist.

Although Mr Muhyiddin has garnered slightly more than half of the nominations so far, he actually lost three nominations from his home state of Johor. Observers have noted that he does not have wide grassroots support, and without the extraordinary Barisan Nasional losses in the general election, he might not even have got this far.

The perception of Mr Najib's support has given him a boost. But it will be a struggle for Mr Muhyiddin to maintain the momentum of support till the March elections, observers say. He has himself expressed concern that the long campaign period could impact on candidates' productivity and 'drain resources like energy and funds'.

Observers believe he could face a difficult time securing the votes of the 2,500 delegates to the assembly, against his opponents who are more popular among the grassroots.

'They are considered very Malay,' said a Johor division leader, referring in particular to Mr Ali's genuine touch and affinity for the party's rural base.

Mr Muhyiddin is seen as someone with a more aloof demeanour.

A contest against Mr Ali or Mr Muhammad or both of them will not be the first time they have faced off.

In the 1996 and 2000 contests for one of the three Umno vice-president posts, Mr Muhyiddin polled fewer votes than Mr Muhammad.

In the 2004 Umno election, he received fewer votes than Mr Ali.

But to some, the rise of Mr Ali and Mr Muhammad would be worrying due to perceptions that they do not have the intellectual heft to carry the title of deputy prime minister.

Political columnist Karim Raslan wrote in The Star daily that many leaders proffered by Umno lacked national standing and competence.

'Having seen a leader of Obama's calibre, Malaysians shouldn't have to make do with the provincial and second-rate,' he wrote, referring to US President-elect Barack Obama.

carolynh@sph.com.sg