Crisis makes euro more attractive to some, a pipe-dream for others
-- PHOTO: AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
STOCKHOLM - THE global financial crisis has sparked interest in the euro in the wealthy Nordic countries but has dashed the short-term hopes of countries with fragile economies such as the Baltic states.
Perhaps more than anywhere else in Europe, the debate over whether or not to adopt the single currency has resumed with renewed vigour in Denmark, a member of the European Union that has negotiated a formal opt-out of the euro zone.
Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen said in October there was 'no doubt that there is a significant price to pay' for Denmark's decision to stay outside the euro zone.
Since then, Mr Rasmussen, who has his sights set on a top EU post in Brussels, has been sounding out Danish political parties in a bid to reach a consensus on whether to hold another referendum on the euro, which 53 per cent of Danes rejected in a vote in September 2000.
The prime minister has public opinion on his side, according to a poll published in November which indicated that 48 per cent of Danes were in favour of swapping the krone for the euro while 44 per cent were opposed.
'The Danish central bank's interest rates rose significantly during the crisis, a sign that staying outside the euro zone and shadowing its moves at the same time is not the best strategy,' Mr Antonio Missiroli, an analyst at the European Policy Centre.
Denmark has a fixed exchange rate policy with the euro and so tends to follow the European Central Bank's lead on rate changes.
Any Danish decision to adopt the euro could have an direct impact on neighbouring Sweden, where public opinion is still vehemently opposed to adopting the single currency after rejecting the idea in a 2003 referendum.
'There is a movement now for joining the euro zone because there's a high price to pay for staying outside,' Mr Anders Hellner of the Swedish Institute of International Affairs said, noting the country's economy had entered a recession and the krona recently plunged to its lowest level against the euro.
Swedish opposition is mainly attributed to scepticism concerning European monetary policy and an unwillingness to transfer power to the ECB.
Mr Hellner suggested that if the economic crisis were to be drawn out, the 'yes' side would inevitably gain momentum.
Norway, which is not a member of the European Union, could also have a hard time resisting euro zone membership, while Iceland, not an EU member either, has become much more tempted by the single currency since its once-booming financial sector fell apart in October.
'The euro, as a major international reserve currency, can be a protection for countries in difficulty. As most countries have at least some problems the euro has become more attractive almost everywhere,' said Mr Daniel Gros, the director of the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS).
'In recent months, the euro has proven to be a sort of final defence against the financial crisis,' Mr Missiroli echoed.
'In central Europe, even in the Czech Republic, the idea of joining the euro has grown stronger,' he said.
Even in euro-sceptic Britain, there have been some suggestions that the sharp fall in the pound could help turn public opinion in favour of the single European currency.
Citing private conversations with British politicians, EU Commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso said earlier this month that London was thinking of ditching the pound as a consequence of the global financial turmoil.
This was swiftly denied by the British prime minister's office, however.
Poland's liberal government has set 2012 as its target date for joining the euro zone, but the eurosceptic conservative opposition could block the process since any change to the country's constitution - necessary for the adoption of the euro - would require its votes.
Poland has been relatively spared in the current crisis, and insists it will be able to meet the so-called Maastricht economic criteria for membership as early as 2009.
Mr Missiroli said a Polish euro membership would have consequences on the rest of central Europe.
'If it decides to join, it would be very difficult for the other countries ... not to make efforts' to meet the euro zone membership criteria.
As for the Baltic states Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, they unilaterally pegged their currencies to the euro after joining the EU in 2004 and want to adopt it as soon as possible.
But all three countries are currently battling soaring inflation and their target membership dates of 2011-2012 now appear to be nothing more than a pipedream.
Estonia and Latvia have already plunged into a recession that threatens to send their budget deficits ballooning.
'They are too late. They might want to join the euro area but they no longer fulfill the criteria,' Mr Gros said.
The crisis has also dashed the hopes of Bulgaria, the poorest country in the EU, and Hungary, despite strong political support for the euro.
Hungarian Finance Minister Janos Veres said he saw a 'realistic chance' that his country could start negotiations on joining the euro, and, if all goes well, an announcement about a euro target date could be made in 2009.
Romania meanwhile hopes to join the euro zone in 2014. -- AFP