Australian indicators suggest weak growth, job losses in 2009
The Australian government has said the country is well placed to ride out the global financial crisis but that growth will slow and unemployment rise. -- PHOTO: AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
SYDNEY - ECONOMIC indicators released on Wednesday raised the prospect of weak growth and rising unemployment in Australia in 2009 but stopped short of suggesting the country would enter a recession.
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute leading index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity three to nine months ahead, fell well below trend in October.
The index's annualised growth rate slowed to 0.6 per cent from 1.1 per cent in September, far short of the annualised trend of 3.8 per cent.
'This suggests weak growth over the coming few quarters, but the rate of slowing appears to be flattening,' the institute said.
Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said the index, which includes the performance of the stock market and housing approvals, suggested that the economy was unlikely to fall into negative growth in 2009.
'It is likely that growth in 2009 will, at best, show little improvement on the anaemic 1.6 percent we expect through 2008,' Mr Evans said.
'At this stage, the leading index is not indicating a recession and Westpac's forecasts are for a year of weak but nevertheless positive growth.
'However, in the near term, we cannot envisage unexpectedly positive developments in global economic conditions that might allay the concerns of business and financial institutions.' The survey came as new jobs data revealed that vacancies for skilled workers had this month posted their biggest monthly fall since the recession of the early 1990s.
An index measuring skilled vacancies posted in major metropolitan newspapers dropped 7.2 per cent between November and December - its greatest monthly fall since September 1990, the Department of Employment said.
The Australian government has said the country is well placed to ride out the global financial crisis but that growth will slow and unemployment rise.
Canberra, which has provided a A$10.4 billion (S$10.6 billion) stimulus package to protect the economy from the meltdown, has forecast unemployment will rise to 5.0 per cent by June 2009 from the current 4.4 per cent.
But some economists have predicted the number of jobless Australians could top 6.0 per cent by the end of 2009, Dow Jones Newswires reported.
And Australian mining companies, which for years have been riding a resources boom pumping billions into the nation's coffers, have this week sacked more than 500 workers, blaming the financial crisis. -- AFP
